Client or partnering organisation: Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) and Bureau for Economic Research (BER).

Overview and impact:

This research has contributed to a shift in the narrative surrounding South Africa’s mining sector, moving the conversation from a “sunset” industry toward its potential as a “sunrise” sector. Released to coincide with the 2026 Mining Indaba, the study’s findings and recommendations have been supported and amplified by major industry bodies, further cementing its role in the national economic discourse. By demonstrating that the industry’s stagnation is largely driven by human-made constraints rather than geological exhaustion, this work provides a key reference for policymakers and leaders working to address logistical and regulatory bottlenecks.

Applying the Growth Diagnostics framework, the paper investigates the binding constraints that have prevented the sector from capitalizing on global commodity booms and the green energy transition. South Africa’s mining sector presents a significant economic paradox: despite possessing a mineral endowment of global significance—particularly in platinum group metals (PGMs), manganese, and chromium—the industry has experienced a profound structural decline since the 1970s. This study argues that the sector’s decline is primarily endogenous, offering an evidence-based roadmap for reform to ensure the nation’s mineral wealth drives future economic growth.

Download Reports/Products:
Understanding South Africa’s mining slowdown
Turning SA’s sunset mining sector into a sunrise industry 

Selected Print and Online Media Coverage of the project:

Bloomberg: South Africa Mining Exploration Falls for Seventh Year

Featured in Bloomberg’s coverage of the continued decline in South Africa’s mineral exploration. Highlighting our assessment about the effective collapse of the sector’s project pipeline, the article points to our report and proposed policy solutions—including targeted tax rebates (flow through shares), a transparent mining rights database (cadastral system), and increased funding for geological mapping—as essential steps to revitalise the industry’s prospecting efforts.

Business Day: Research paper blames poor policy for mining exploration crisis

Business Day recently covered the report, highlighting our warning that poor policy and a “one-size-fits-all” regulatory approach are driving a “failure-to-launch crisis” in South African mining exploration. The article underscores our core argument: to unlock the country’s vast untapped mineral wealth, policymakers must ease the prohibitive compliance costs strangling junior miners and rethink current legislative drafts to account for their unique, high-risk business models.

Daily Investor: One thing the government can do to save South Africa’s most important sector

Daily Investor highlighted the report, focusing on how South Africa’s mining industry can transition from a perceived “sunset” industry back to a “sunrise” sector. The article underscores our core finding: the sector’s stagnation is driven by policy, regulatory, and bureaucratic obstacles, not geological exhaustion. By moving away from adversarial legislating and reducing policy uncertainty, we argue that the South African government can unlock the country’s vast mineral wealth and spur much faster economic growth.

IOL- Business Report: The decline of South Africa’s mining sector: Challenges and opportunities

IOL Business Report covered the report, challenging the narrative that South African mining is a “sunset sector.” The article highlights our findings that the industry’s long-term stagnation—including the “Missed Super-Cycle” of the early 2000s—is the result of domestic policy transitions and a crisis of confidence, rather than geological exhaustion. Emphasising the sector’s continued role as an economic cornerstone, the coverage underscores our argument that restoring a functional ecosystem between large-cap majors and junior explorers is critical to unlocking the country’s vast, untapped mineral wealth.

Daily Investor: The crime turning a South African township into a warzone

Daily Investor covered the report, highlighting the staggering 757% growth of illicit mining in South Africa. The article underscores our analysis of how the lack of a transparent cadastral system has enabled systemic extortion and organised crime, sharply driving down the risk-adjusted return on legal investment. To restore the rule of law across the mineral complex, the piece highlights core recommendations: formalising Operation Vala Umgodi into a permanent Mining Police Task Force and establishing a Judicial Commission of Inquiry.

Opinion Piece in the Business Day: How to turn SA’s sunset mining sector into a sunrise industry

Opinion piece for Business Day, co-authored with Claire Bisseker, we unpack the research report, and the critical interventions needed to transform South Africa’s mining industry from a perceived “sunset” sector back into a vibrant “sunrise” economic engine. The article outlines our core argument: by clearing regulatory bottlenecks and actively empowering junior minors/exploration, the government can unlock the country’s immense latent mineral wealth and revitalize the project pipeline.

Daily Investor: South Africa’s golden lie

In a feature titled “South Africa’s Golden Lie,” Daily Investor examines our research on the “growth illusion” currently masking a deepening productivity crisis in South Africa’s mining sector. The article highlights the analysis of the “Capital Productivity Paradox,” where rising investment fails to yield higher output due to internal efficiencies and external constraints. By exposing how high commodity prices have papered over a 11.55% real contraction in the sector since 1994, the piece underscores the urgent need for structural reform to move beyond the industry’s decades-long stagnation.

Client or partnering organisation:

• Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) and Bureau for Economic Research (BER).

Overview and impact:

This research project represents the most comprehensive, influential, and impactful evaluation of South Africa’s Sector Education and Training Authority (SETA) system in two decades, directly influencing and shaping the national debate on the SETA system. Arguably a primary driving force behind the President of South Africa’s announcement calling for an urgent overhaul of the SETA system, this project has redefined the conversation around vocational training and state-led skill interventions. Co-authored by Tregathen Consulting in partnership with the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) and Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA), it serves as the definitive evidence base for a fundamental overhaul of how the nation develops its human capital.
The report provides an exhaustive analysis of the system’s performance, identifying a “leaky pipeline” where over 630,000 registrations failed to lead to certification despite the allocation of R164 billion via the Skills Development Levy. By demonstrating that the costs per beneficiary often exceed traditional university education without resolving the core skills shortage, the study advocates for a strategic shift toward firm-level incentives and decentralised training. This work provides the necessary framework to move toward a demand-driven system that prioritises industrial growth and addresses the binding constraints on the South African economy.

Download Reports/Products:

Time to rethink skills development an independent review of the Sector Education and Training Authority system
Time for a skills rethink: A review of the SETA system.

Selected Print and Online Media Coverage of the project:

Financial Mail (Cover page): How to plug South Africa’s leaky skills pipeline

In this Financial Mail cover story, Claire Bisseker unpacked our research on South Africa’s Sector Education Training Authorities (SETA) system. The research paper, co-authored with Roy Havemann, examines the systemic failures of the SETA system, which has seen a R165 billion investment over the last decade yield disappointing results for the national labour market. The article underscores our call for a fundamental reform of SETAs and restructuring of vocational training to prioritise high-demand skills and measurable employment outcomes over mere enrolment numbers.
Interview available here.

HOT Business: Interview with Jeremy Maggs

In this interview with Jeremy Maggs on HOT Business, we discuss the findings of our recent research paper co-authored with Roy Havemann, which takes a critical look at South Africa’s SETA system. We explore how the current framework drains approximately R20 billion annually without effectively closing the national skills gap, and we outline our proposed shift toward a more efficient, growth-oriented model for skills development.

SAfm Market Update: Interview with Jimmy Moyaha

Featured on SAfm Market Update, we joined Jimmy Moyaha to discuss our research for the Bureau for Economic Research, which reveals that R165 billion has been spent on South Africa’s SETA system over the last decade with troubling results. The interview highlights our findings on the “leaky pipeline” of skills development—where high enrolment costs and low job absorption rates persist—and underscores the urgent need for a more accountable, results-oriented vocational training framework.
Interview and transcript available here.

News24 – Opinion Piece: SETA reform requires decisive action – not another promise

In an opinion piece for News24 on the need for structural SETA reform, Wayne Duvenage (CEO of Organisation Undoing Tax Abuse) draws on the data from our policy paper co-authored with Roy Havemann. While focusing on the lack of government action, Duvenage highlights our analysis of the system’s inefficiencies as a clear indicator of why the current model is failing. This recognition demonstrates how our research provides a rigorous evidence base for leaders across civil society to advocate for meaningful policy change.

Daily Investor: South Africa flushing R20 billion down the drain

Daily Investor featured our report on the crisis within South Africa’s skills development sector. The article examines our analysis of how the SETA system has failed to deliver the promised “skills revolution, despite receiving more funding than the government makes through bracket creep. Highlighting our proposed solutions—ranging from a market-driven Research and Development style incentive to a total phase-out of the current levy—the coverage demonstrates how our work provides a roadmap for reducing the cost of employment and closing the national skills gap.

The Citizen: SETA not resolving skills shortage, just eating our tax money

In a feature titled “Setas not resolving skills shortage, just eating our tax money,” The Citizen highlights our research co-authored with the BER’s Roy Havemann and Claire Bisseker. The article amplifies our findings that R165 billion has been spent on the SETA system over the last decade with little to show for it, and underscores the calls to replace the current levy with a more efficient, firm-led tax incentive for skills development.

Daily Investor: South Africa’s forgotten R164 billion tax

Daily Investor highlighted our research regarding the profound inefficiencies of South Africa’s SETA system. The article, covering our work with BER’s Roy Havemann and Claire Bisseker, unpacks the forgotten R164 billion tax burden placed on employers through the Skills Development Levy over a 13-year period. Detailing our findings on the system’s massive operational leakages—including over 630,000 uncertified program registrations and a bloated wage bill—the coverage reinforces our argument that this vital taxpayer funding must be urgently reformed to address the national skills crisis.

Client or partnering organisation:

• Bureau for Economic Research (BER).
• Towards Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED)/ UNU-WIDER – United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research

Overview and impact:

This research serves as a foundational component of the work in the water sector, informing Operation Vulindlela, the joint initiative between the Presidency and National Treasury tasked with driving urgent structural transformation across South Africa. By providing the evidence base for presentations used by the Presidency and presented at the SA-TIED Phase II conference in 2026, this project has moved to the centre of the national debate on water security. It offers a clear, actionable roadmap for leveraging private sector participation to fix failing infrastructure, making it a critical tool for the state’s efforts to reform the water sector and unlock long-term economic growth.
Co-authored by Robert Botha, founder of Tregathen Consulting, the study provides a rigorous qualitative analysis of South Africa’s two most prominent long-term water concessions: Siza Water in iLembe and Silulumanzi in Mbombela. By extracting key operational lessons from these success stories, the research demonstrates how private-sector expertise can dramatically reduce non-revenue water losses and improve service reliability. The project advocates for a balanced, hybrid model that combines the efficiency gains of private operators with the state’s essential role in funding infrastructure for low-income communities, providing a blueprint for modernising municipal water services nationwide.

Download Reports/Products:
Private-sector participation in water: Selected South African case studies
Tapping into Efficiency: Private Sector Participation in Water 

Selected Print and Online Media Coverage of the project:

Business Day- Opinion Piece: A private sector answer to SA’s water woes

Robert Botha (Tregathen Consulting) and Claire Bisseker from the BER explore the roadmap for private sector participation in the water sector, as detailed in the research report. The piece unpacks how the evidence-based models identified in the report—specifically municipal water concessions—can provide the investment and technical expertise needed to end the cycle of infrastructure decay and service delivery failures. Read Article

News24 – Opinion Piece: SA private water projects work – but firms can’t fix crisis alone

In this opinion piece for News24, we outline the core findings of the research report on South African water concessions. The article argues that while private sector projects in municipalities like Mbombela and iLembe have proven remarkably successful, the private sector cannot solve the water crisis in isolation. It highlights the report’s conclusion: scaling these successes requires a robust regulatory framework and a committed public-sector partner to ensure long-term water security.

Client or partnering organisation: Bureau for Economic Research (BER) and a Tregathen Consulting internal project.

Overview and impact:

This project has been a primary catalyst for the official adoption of a national fiscal anchor, culminating in the National Treasury’s 2026 announcement that South Africa will explore the implementation of a formal, principle-based fiscal rule/anchor. This trajectory was heavily influenced by Robert Botha, founder and head of Tregathen Consulting, who led the conceptualisation, drafting, and introduction of the nation’s first Fiscal Responsibility Bill in 2017. This landmark legislative effort pioneered the formal debate on rules-based fiscal policy in South Africa, initiating a multi-year process of advocacy and technical engagement with key stakeholders to restore sovereign credibility and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability.
The research, subsequently commissioned by the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), “A Fiscal Anchor for South Africa: Avoiding the Mistakes of the Past,” represents one of the most consequential pieces of literature in this field in South Africa. Featured on the cover of Business Day and recommended as a reading by the National Treasury during its official public consultations on fiscal reform, the work provided the rigorous analytical foundation required for major structural change. By outlining a clear framework for an expenditure-based rule, this project has successfully moved from foundational advocacy to influencing the central pillars of South Africa’s national fiscal strategy strategy.

Download Reports/Products:

A fiscal anchor for South Africa: Avoiding the mistakes of the past 

Selected Print and Online Media Coverage of the project:

Business Day: Debt rule could give SA credibility but needs political buy-in, says BER

Featured on the front page of Business Day, this article covers our research report for the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), “A fiscal anchor for South Africa: Avoiding the mistakes of the past.” The cover story underscores our core argument: that a well-designed, legislated fiscal rule is essential to restoring South Africa’s fiscal credibility and avoiding a debt spiral. It emphasises our findings that while such a rule can lower borrowing costs and unlock resources for service delivery, its success ultimately hinges on genuine political buy-in and robust, independent oversight.

The Conversation (Opinion Piece): South Africa’s debt has skyrocketed – new rules are needed to manage it

In this article for The Conversation, we translate the findings of the research report, “A fiscal anchor for South Africa: Avoiding the mistakes of the past,” into a clear case for urgent policy reform. We outline how South Africa’s skyrocketing debt necessitates a move beyond informal targets toward legally binding fiscal rules. The piece highlights our report’s core recommendation: establishing a transparent, legislated anchor to restore market confidence and protect the country’s long-term financial health.

Moneyweb: Government debt has skyrocketed

Featured on Moneyweb, this article highlights the urgency of South Africa’s debt crisis, which has seen public debt soar from 23% to over 75% of GDP in just 15 years. Drawing on our research report for the Bureau for Economic Research, we argue that “informal” fiscal targets are no longer enough. The piece calls for a transition to legally binding fiscal anchors to restore investor confidence and protect the country’s long-term financial stability.

Business Day (Opinion Piece): There is little reason not to like fiscal rules

In this Business Day opinion piece, which we co-authored with Claire Bisseker, we make a decisive case for the adoption of legislated fiscal rules in South Africa. Drawing on our research report for the Bureau for Economic Research, we argue that move away from “informal” targets is the most effective way to restore fiscal credibility, lower borrowing costs, and protect the country from a looming debt trap.
We emphasize that while the country has utilised fiscal targets for years, their informal nature has allowed for consistent slippage; it is time to turn these flexible goals into hard, legislated boundaries.

Business Day (Opinion Piece): SA’s own fiscal fantasyland

In this Business Day article, we challenge the recurring optimism of national budget projections, describing the gap between Treasury’s targets and fiscal reality as “South Africa’s own fiscal fantasyland.” Drawing on our research into legislated fiscal anchors, I argue that relying on hopeful growth forecasts rather than binding expenditure rules has led to a decade of missed targets. The piece emphasizes that until we anchor our budget in reality, the country remains at risk of a deepening debt crisis.

Business Day (Opinion Piece): Fiscal rules for SA: empty bark or capacity to bite?

In this Business Day opinion piece, we explore a critical question regarding South Africa’s economic future: do the proposed fiscal rules for South Africa have the “capacity to bite,” or are they merely “empty bark”? We argue that for a fiscal anchor to be effective, it must move beyond symbolic targets and include legislated enforcement mechanisms. As we note in the article, “A fiscal rule without the institutional ‘teeth’ to constrain political discretion is little more than a statement of intent that will be ignored when the political cycle demands it.”

Business Day (Opinion Piece): SA needs to restore fiscal credibility

In this Business Day opinion piece, we argue that South Africa’s path to economic stability requires more than just “fiscal intent”—it requires the restoration of genuine fiscal credibility. I highlight how the repeated failure to meet informal targets has eroded market trust, noting that “credibility is not restored through hopeful projections, but through binding constraints that signal a permanent shift in how the state manages its balance sheet.

Client or partnering organisation:
– Bureau for Economic Research (BER).
– Towards Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED)/ UNU-WIDER – United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research

Overview and impact:

This research serves as a pivotal component of the national structural reform agenda driven by Operation Vulindlela, tackling one of South Africa’s most severe economic constraints: energy security. Authored by the head of Tregathen Consulting, Robert Botha, in partnership with the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), the project delivers a definitive analysis of the 2020 regulatory reforms that originally permitted municipalities to procure electricity directly from Independent Power Producers (IPPs). By rigorously investigating why, by early 2025, not a single municipality had successfully added new long-term capacity to the grid, this study provided a deep understanding of reform challenges. It exposes the critical disconnect between regulatory intent and execution, providing policymakers with the essential diagnostic needed to evaluate reforms of South Africa’s energy sector.
The reports provide an exhaustive evaluation of the systemic hurdles that paralysed local government procurement of power from IPPs, ranging from complex regulatory bottlenecks to the deep financial distress of existing municipal distribution grids. By demonstrating that the national energy transition cannot succeed without a fundamental reassessment of municipal funding models, the research shifts the debate beyond generation capacity to structural viability. This project provides a clear, evidence-based roadmap to resolve these binding constraints, offering actionable pathways to decentralise power procurement, alleviate the burden and dependency on Eskom, and ultimately drive sustainable economic growth.

Download Reports/Products:
Powerless to Procure? Understanding municipal power procurement from IPPs
What stops municipalities procuring their own power?