Client or partnering organisation: Bureau for Economic Research (BER) and a Tregathen Consulting internal project.
Overview and impact:
This project has been a primary catalyst for the official adoption of a national fiscal anchor, culminating in the National Treasury’s 2026 announcement that South Africa will explore the implementation of a formal, principle-based fiscal rule/anchor. This trajectory was heavily influenced by Robert Botha, founder and head of Tregathen Consulting, who led the conceptualisation, drafting, and introduction of the nation’s first Fiscal Responsibility Bill in 2017. This landmark legislative effort pioneered the formal debate on rules-based fiscal policy in South Africa, initiating a multi-year process of advocacy and technical engagement with key stakeholders to restore sovereign credibility and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability.
The research, subsequently commissioned by the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), “A Fiscal Anchor for South Africa: Avoiding the Mistakes of the Past,” represents one of the most consequential pieces of literature in this field in South Africa. Featured on the cover of Business Day and recommended as a reading by the National Treasury during its official public consultations on fiscal reform, the work provided the rigorous analytical foundation required for major structural change. By outlining a clear framework for an expenditure-based rule, this project has successfully moved from foundational advocacy to influencing the central pillars of South Africa’s national fiscal strategy strategy.
Download Reports/Products:
A fiscal anchor for South Africa: Avoiding the mistakes of the past
Selected Print and Online Media Coverage of the project:
Business Day: Debt rule could give SA credibility but needs political buy-in, says BER
Featured on the front page of Business Day, this article covers our research report for the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), “A fiscal anchor for South Africa: Avoiding the mistakes of the past.” The cover story underscores our core argument: that a well-designed, legislated fiscal rule is essential to restoring South Africa’s fiscal credibility and avoiding a debt spiral. It emphasises our findings that while such a rule can lower borrowing costs and unlock resources for service delivery, its success ultimately hinges on genuine political buy-in and robust, independent oversight.
The Conversation (Opinion Piece): South Africa’s debt has skyrocketed – new rules are needed to manage it
In this article for The Conversation, we translate the findings of the research report, “A fiscal anchor for South Africa: Avoiding the mistakes of the past,” into a clear case for urgent policy reform. We outline how South Africa’s skyrocketing debt necessitates a move beyond informal targets toward legally binding fiscal rules. The piece highlights our report’s core recommendation: establishing a transparent, legislated anchor to restore market confidence and protect the country’s long-term financial health.
Moneyweb: Government debt has skyrocketed
Featured on Moneyweb, this article highlights the urgency of South Africa’s debt crisis, which has seen public debt soar from 23% to over 75% of GDP in just 15 years. Drawing on our research report for the Bureau for Economic Research, we argue that “informal” fiscal targets are no longer enough. The piece calls for a transition to legally binding fiscal anchors to restore investor confidence and protect the country’s long-term financial stability.
Business Day (Opinion Piece): There is little reason not to like fiscal rules
In this Business Day opinion piece, which we co-authored with Claire Bisseker, we make a decisive case for the adoption of legislated fiscal rules in South Africa. Drawing on our research report for the Bureau for Economic Research, we argue that move away from “informal” targets is the most effective way to restore fiscal credibility, lower borrowing costs, and protect the country from a looming debt trap.
We emphasize that while the country has utilised fiscal targets for years, their informal nature has allowed for consistent slippage; it is time to turn these flexible goals into hard, legislated boundaries.
Business Day (Opinion Piece): SA’s own fiscal fantasyland
In this Business Day article, we challenge the recurring optimism of national budget projections, describing the gap between Treasury’s targets and fiscal reality as “South Africa’s own fiscal fantasyland.” Drawing on our research into legislated fiscal anchors, I argue that relying on hopeful growth forecasts rather than binding expenditure rules has led to a decade of missed targets. The piece emphasizes that until we anchor our budget in reality, the country remains at risk of a deepening debt crisis.
Business Day (Opinion Piece): Fiscal rules for SA: empty bark or capacity to bite?
In this Business Day opinion piece, we explore a critical question regarding South Africa’s economic future: do the proposed fiscal rules for South Africa have the “capacity to bite,” or are they merely “empty bark”? We argue that for a fiscal anchor to be effective, it must move beyond symbolic targets and include legislated enforcement mechanisms. As we note in the article, “A fiscal rule without the institutional ‘teeth’ to constrain political discretion is little more than a statement of intent that will be ignored when the political cycle demands it.”
Business Day (Opinion Piece): SA needs to restore fiscal credibility
In this Business Day opinion piece, we argue that South Africa’s path to economic stability requires more than just “fiscal intent”—it requires the restoration of genuine fiscal credibility. I highlight how the repeated failure to meet informal targets has eroded market trust, noting that “credibility is not restored through hopeful projections, but through binding constraints that signal a permanent shift in how the state manages its balance sheet.
