Client or partnering organisation:
– Bureau for Economic Research (BER).
– Towards Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED)/ UNU-WIDER – United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research
Overview and impact:
The research provided a critical corrective to the national macroeconomic discourse, serving as an essential analytical tool for policymakers, rating agencies, and financial markets navigating South Africa’s fiscal position. Authored by the head of Tregathen Consulting, Robert Botha, in partnership with the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), the project reframes the debate around the South Africa’s sovereign debt burden. By rigorously demonstrating how differing methodologies and definitions of debt coverage can drastically alter the perception of fiscal health, this work ensures that future fiscal anchors and consolidation strategies are built on a transparent, accurate, and standardised foundation.
The report offers an exhaustive evaluation of public debt measurement, revealing that South Africa’s debt-to-GDP ratio for 2024/25 ranges anywhere from 69.2% to 129% depending on the specific metrics applied. By unpacking the impact of broader institutional coverage, the Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account (GFECRA), and the escalating risks posed by contingent liabilities, the study exposes the inherent flaws in superficial cross-country debt comparisons. Ultimately, the project provides a comprehensive diagnostic of the state’s financial obligations, emphasising that a nuanced understanding of hidden debt and accurate measurement is a prerequisite for achieving long-term fiscal sustainability.
Download Reports/Products:
How indebted is South Africa really?
Selected Print and Online Media Coverage of the project:
Business Day- Opinion Piece: Official debt numbers are fixated on, but how indebted is SA really?
In this Business Day column, co-authored with Claire Bisseker, we consider the conventional focus on narrow debt figures, asking: how indebted is South Africa really? We unpack how broadening our view from the “budgetary central government” to the “consolidated public sector”—accounting for state-owned companies, local government, and social security funds—catapults South Africa’s gross debt ratio from the official 76.9% to roughly 129% of GDP (2024/25). As we note in the piece, “Failing to account for these differences in debt coverage often leads to misleading comparisons between countries, while hiding the substantial risks these less-examined liabilities pose to the state’s balance sheet.”
Businesstech:
In a feature highlighting how South Africa’s debt crisis is far deeper than officially reported, BusinessTech unpacked our research for the Bureau for Economic Research (BER). The article focuses on our analysis of the country’s narrow debt reporting, pointing out that while the official budget projects a debt-to-GDP peak of 77.4%, the true liability landscape shifts dramatically when accounting for hidden risks.
